Which one are YOU?

Herb · Oct 9, 2010

LOL...here we go. Let's have some fun.

I found this quite entertaining and quite accurate to say the least. I find myself leaning WAY towards the 'hardcore skeptics' category.

Which one are you?

Those willing to read the entire article start to finish may just learn some thing too. I know I learned a few things myself.

[FONT=Georgia,Times,serif]Beware the Big Bank Blow-Up [/FONT]
Dear Reader,
I know that you are inundated with bad news and apologize for making my own contributions to the incoming.
As I’ve tried to communicate, it’s not that I dwell on this stuff. I really don’t.
Yet in my role as a provider of what I hope is useful information, it would be insincere and counterproductive if I insisted on wearing rose-colored glasses when viewing the world we are now living in.
It’s not that Pollyanna doesn’t have a role to play, too; it’s never a bad idea to look for the good and beautiful, even when times are bad.
But for far too long, government minions, corporate quislings, and the clueless media have been donning cute little gingham dresses, ribboning their hair into perky pigtails, and skipping about while singing happy ditties about an economic recovery and a perfect world that exists just over the horizon.
In my opinion, depending on how they view these happy antics, the majority of citizens of the United States can be divided into five general groups:

Mostly skeptical. A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 58% of Americans believe that tax cuts are good for the economy, and 53% think that cutting government spending is helpful. Of course, this flies in the face of the actions and intentions of the government, which is preparing to raise taxes (directly, and indirectly through massive new bodies of regulation) and to unleash a money storm of up to $2 trillion in a new round of quantitative easing. This large category can include people from all sides of the political spectrum, but would probably skew Republican.

Useful idiots. The term “useful idiots” was used by the Soviet leadership to describe the misinformed and misguided Western intelligentsia who championed their deeply dysfunctional policies even as the iron grip of the state began to close around the windpipes of the proletariat. In the U.S. context, the U.I.s believe the path to economic salvation is paved with good intentions that, should the deniers and obstructionists just get out of the way, can be expressed by a loving and activist government armed with newly created money for all who need it.

And that’s just for starters, because in the perfect world that’s within our grasp, if we’ll just embrace it, lays an energy-efficient, reduced-carbon, child-safe, leveled-wealth, no-mortgage-foreclosures future. It’s so easy, they intone with the blank-faced cheerfulness of the Hare Krishna. Until, of course, you ask them where the money for all this largess is going to come from. At which point a bitter note creeps into their voice as they parrot dark fictions about the need for the haves to pay more in taxes so that the have-nots, have more. This is a sizable group, probably well over 25% of Americans, and skews almost 100% toward the Democrats.

Blissfully unaware. This group cuts across all the social classes, though most would likely have a job. They have grown up with certain expectations about America and go along to get along. They might not trust politicians, but neither do they worry overly much about such things either. As long as they have a roof over their head, three meals a day, and a working car, they’re good.

Down and desperate. Today’s unemployment numbers show yet another 95,000 workers hitting the streets, joining 15 million unemployed, of which 6.1 million have been out of work for over 27 weeks… and those compete for work with a record 9.5 million part-time workers who want to work full time. At this point, most are trying to cling to the hope that the government is going to “do something.” Or actually can do something. They are not happy with government, yet most persist in the belief that their problems will be best solved by government action.

The hardcore skeptics. This category is not a crowded space, because entry requires coming to the realization that the government is not the solution to pretty much anything, but quite the opposite.

Despite the bad rap, it wasn’t the free markets that brought the economy to its knees. I say that because no business can force you to buy its product or otherwise part you from the fruits of your labor. And no business can force you to hire staff, accountants, and lawyers to fill out an endless number of compliance forms and otherwise jump through regulatory hoops. (That is, unless those businesses are working hand in hand with a coercive bureaucracy.) Businesses don’t start wars or spend money they don’t first earn by offering a good or service that people are willing to buy. By contrast, the government can do all those things – and more – including knocking your door down in the middle of the night or locking you away without trial.

In my personal view, not trusting the state or its henchmen is just common sense. And when I hear that the government is rolling out some new program, no matter how well intentioned it might sound, I examine it with squinted eyes – trying to assess the damage it’s likely to do me and mine, in order that I may then calculate how to limit the damage. Perhaps by making an offsetting investment.

In other words, while much of what we discuss could be considered “gloomy,” I believe it’s more accurate to call it “realistic.” It is governments that start wars, levy taxes, and steadily increase the rules and regulations that make doing business so unnecessarily challenging. And then, once their myriad policies have caused business and the economy to become all balled up, they set about trying to fix what they have wrought… by doing yet more of the same.
With that long introduction, I want to share with you a must-watch video of institutional money manager Chris Whalen discussing the dire state of the big banks.
Click the link below, then skip to minute 1:07 when he starts discussing the actual situation with the nation’s banks – which is in stark contrast to the delightful little duet being sung by Bernanke and Geithner. The link to the video is here.
What’s important in this diatribe is that there is no one in this world who is going to look after you but you, and maybe your family.
As a consequence, it has rarely been more important to be a hardcore skeptic, because being blissfully unaware, or even mostly skeptical, could very well lead you to joining the ranks of the down and desperate.
As for the useful idiots, I’m sorry to say that they are going to get the government they deserve, good and hard. And so will you, if you let them take you down with them.
Speaking of banks and real estate, the situation is quickly becoming positively Alice in Wonderland-like. The latest development being that the president has vetoed a bill updating acceptance of cross-state and electronic notarizations, compounding the challenges the banks are having in foreclosing on non-performing loans.
Forget that people took out mortgages, fully aware they had to meet the terms of the loans in order to avoid foreclosure, but have stopped making payments anyway. There’s no question that economic realities have changed for many, but even so, the game today is, “I’m not going to pay, and I’m not going away.”
Of course it’s a horrible thing to lose a home, and sure, the banks and others involved in securitization of millions of mortgages during the housing bubble have made a proper mess of the paperwork and the process. But do we really think we can come out of this crisis with the financial institutions stuck with something like 16 million mortgages that are either currently in the foreclosure process or that will be by the time this is over, having lately largely become frozen in place by legislative and judicial fiat?
As Chris Whalen explains so well in the video I link to above, despite the government transferring well over a trillion dollars in taxpayer funds and obligations to the banks, they are still sliding toward collapse. Freezing the foreclosure process for political advantage – and a number of members of Congress want to make the freeze semi-permanent – only assures that collapse.
Don’t get me wrong, if a bank should fail and the bond and equity holders are wiped out, so be it. But, of course, when the big banks start to tumble down, it’s a certainty the government will again bail them out… taking us even more quickly down the path to hyperinflation.
The writing is on the wall, all I can do is point to it and hope you get the message.
On this general topic, I wanted to mention that I had a brief chat yesterday with Andy Miller, our “go to” guy on what’s really going on in real estate and mortgage markets. Andy has agreed to sit for an interview providing readers with a quick update. I didn’t have time to get it done today, but will definitely present it as a special edition of Casey’s Daily Dispatch at some point next week – probably Wednesday.

The End of Cash – a Straw in the Wind

Lately I have discussed the possibility that we will become a cashless society, allowing the government all manner of new controls, including data matching to assure everyone’s expenses line up with reported income… monitoring a newly instituted VAT… doing away with the “black” economy, and perhaps setting the stage for gold confiscation (once cash is eliminated, then it becomes an easy target for its usefulness to the criminal classes in transacting business).
Not to get all paranoid, but Casey Research Washington Correspondent Donald Grove sent along the following Visa card advertisement, which ran on the inside cover of the Congressional Quarterly. Of course, Visa would be among those with the most to gain from going to a cashless society and, from the looks of it, is lobbying hard to make that happen.

Commodities on a Tear

Not only has gold bounced back from the latest quick sell-off, but other commodities are jumping as well, including oil, which is again trading near $83 per barrel. And that’s only for starters. This just in from Bud Conrad…

Corn is lock limit up 30 cents. Oats up limit 20 cents. Wheat up 55 cents. Rice up 46 cents. Beans up 70 cents. This is truly a huge move.
A USDA report affected the market. These are inflationary levels. This will affect all of us, especially the lower income bracket.
I've been ignoring food based on good U.S. crop conditions. The bomb shell that I found was cutting the yield per acre for corn so that 496 million fewer bushels will be produced. That was not telegraphed in the crop conditions, so it was a surprise, and it looks screwy. Traders won't like the USDA doing shocking things like this.
Bud

As an aside, Bud is on his way to give the keynote presentation at a large investment event in the Philippines before joining up with Doug, Louis James, and myself at the La Estancia de Cafayate Sights & Sounds Celebration, October 20 – 24 in Cafayate, Argentina. The event is almost sold out, and it’s growing late to make your arrangements if you wish to participate. For more info, at this point the best move is to drop Dave Norden a note at: dnorden@lec.com.ar. See you there?

The March Toward 1984 Continues

As we have discussed on several occasions in the past, it appears that George Orwell really understood the collective psyche of the English people and used that knowledge to his great advantage in writing 1984.
He must have had true insights, because it seems that almost never a day goes by without the English taking another long step towards the dystopian future Orwell imagined.
I was tipped to the latest by one dear UK friend and correspondent. It revolves around a new census initiative, administered by U.S. defense contractor Lockheed-Martin and scheduled for March of 2011.
The census is 32 pages long, with 56 questions about all the stuff you usually expect, including work, education, health, marital status, and so on.
But then it goes on to ask you about your sexual orientation and requires you to disclose which passports you hold. You are also required to provide details on the names, sex, and birthdates of any overnight guests you may have had in your house.
While some Brits might be tempted to slam the door in the face of census workers, that’s not an option. In fact, a failure to complete the census form, or to include false information, could result in a £1,000 fine or even imprisonment.
Here’s a story on the census from the Telegraph.
And this from a census office.
As I have remarked before, as much as I love the British sense of humor, the beer, and the snooker, if I lived in that country today, it would only be for long enough to pack my bags and otherwise settle my affairs in order that I might vote with my feet.

The 10:10 Murder Video

At the Gold & Resource Summit, I played the advertisement by the 10:10 environmental group that showed a teacher executing students who didn’t buy into their carbon-cutting scheme, by pushing a button and blowing them up in a gore-splattered scene. Chris Wood, filling in for me with this missive, showed the same video – and it has received a fair amount of attention since.
Trying to cover their tracks, 10:10 pulled the video, and even the enviro-alarmist movement reluctantly condemned the video, expressing that it was just a matter of humor done poorly, and that no one in the environmental movement could condone such a tasteless and disturbing depiction of child murder.

Well, Anthony Watts, who manages the award-winning blog WattsUpWithThat.com, reveals the disingenuous nature of those claims by running a collection of just some of the horrific ad campaigns the environmentalists have unleashed on the public in recent years.
As you will see when you follow the link below, not only do they depict killing kids and drowning babies, but have chimps hanging themselves and kangaroos throwing themselves in front of trains in despair over humankind’s degradation of their habitats.
I don’t know what sort of warped psychology you have to have to want to be associated with these sorts of campaigns, but as this is the sort of sociopath now guiding environmental policy around the world, you should be afraid. Very afraid.
Here’s the link.

Friday Funnies

After that, I need a laugh. The following came to me from a dear reader and friend, Ron in Hawaii – mahalo!
The economy is so bad that…

I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.

I ordered a burger at McDonald's, and the kid behind the counter asked, "Can you afford fries with that?"

CEOs are now playing miniature golf.

If the bank returns your check marked "Insufficient Funds," you have to call them and ask if they mean you or them.

Hot Wheels and Matchbox stocks are trading higher than GM.

Parents in Beverly Hills and Malibu are firing their nannies and learning their children's names.

A truckload of Americans were caught sneaking into Mexico.

Motel Six won't leave the light on anymore.

The Mafia is laying off judges.

BP Oil laid off 25 congressmen.

Congress says they are looking into the Bernard Madoff scandal. Oh great! The guy who made $50 billion disappear is being investigated by the people who made $1.5 trillion disappear!
And with that, I will bid you farewell for the week, thanking you for reading and for being a subscriber as I head for the door.
Until Monday…

David Galland
Managing Director
Casey Research
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ResinRubber · Oct 9, 2010

Looks like I line up as a hardcore. These are conversations I have every time I hit the Dakotas with people who are the bedrock of society. To almost a person the ranchers/farmers I hang with there figure they'll be the ones pulling America back from the brink after some form of collapse and its only a matter of time.

It's not a matter of fear or worry, just a simple acceptance. It's also not necessarily a matter of being a NWO conspiracist or believer in dark malevolent forces. Just watching the reality of an inefficient over reaching government and self serving leadership leaves no other possible long term conclusion than some sort of economic collapse. I'm not a smart guy...just some schmoe in the midwest with a little economic acumen and even I can see decisions of national economy and market are not being made for sound reasoning. There's another ideology at work. I'm not smart enough to figure out why and those making the decisions will never give the true rational so in my mind I/we will most likely never know the why's until it's much too late. But, I'm also not stupid enough to not see that WE (the general population and well being of our nation) are not the main concern.

cheers?

Psycho D · Oct 9, 2010

Without sounding GAAY......you are the living end Herb.

I'll assume I've asked before (forgive me if I don't remember, I smoke), but have you ever been to a destitute country trying to fight their way out of chaos? I'm might be trying to be a tad funny man but this is not a joke.

You'd have to agree the US would NEVER come down to the point of anarchy. It's just not logistically possible. Too many people think like I do.

Broke, bumming and bored, citizens are not going to get hassled by our government (military) ever in case of econmics. EVER. Why? Uh...the DoD owes me money....as with every other discharged. Get that? does not change peoples values. You would'd have to kidnap my kid to make me break down your door. Exponentially, that's a lot of fuckin kiddos. Hate to be blunt but..

I'm crushing yer head..

Oppresion isn't really a factor here..that's what voting is for.

LionLoves420 · Oct 9, 2010

Though the whole of the article, despite its condescending tone, is OK, the use of the word "skeptic" is a misuse which I believe the obviously educated author is doing on purpose for one reason or another (I have several theories). Rather it implies someone who is a hardcore skeptic would be a libertarian/hard core market capitalist.

The article is defiantly a good read, though slightly alarmist, but that is kinda the point when trying to get people to see what is going on.

However, as a real-life skeptic, I don't really know which system of society is right or wrong, or will work or not.

Cannagirl · Oct 9, 2010

I'm an ass, man.

shit wrong thread.....this title seems oddly familiar........ :mashed:

nobogart · Oct 9, 2010

Cannagirl said:

I'm an ass, man.
shit wrong thread.....this title seems oddly familiar........ :mashed:
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ah..... ass girl???

oh and i will take door number 5.

Herb · Oct 9, 2010

Psycho D said:

Without sounding GAAY......you are the living end Herb.
I'll assume I've asked before (forgive me if I don't remember, I smoke), but have you ever been to a destitute country trying to fight their way out of chaos? I'm might be trying to be a tad funny man but this is not a joke.

You'd have to agree the US would NEVER come down to the point of anarchy. It's just not logistically possible. Too many people think like I do.

Broke, bumming and bored, citizens are not going to get hassled by our government (military) ever in case of econmics. EVER. Why? Uh...the DoD owes me money....as with every other discharged. Get that? does not change peoples values. You would'd have to kidnap my kid to make me break down your door. Exponentially, that's a lot of fuckin kiddos. Hate to be blunt but..

I'm crushing yer head..

Oppresion isn't really a factor here..that's what voting is for.
Click to expand...

I have to admit that I'm not exactly sure what you mean by me being the 'living end'. Maybe you were stoned when ya wrote that...I dunno.

Look....You have your view and I have mine. I happen to think you're wrong in your view of the world but I do respect the fact that you are entitled to your own view. Allow me mine without the badgering if you would please.

Thanks :thumbs-up:

Dazechain · Oct 9, 2010

cheers?

...lol...

...on a serious note...over - the - top hardcore skeptic here, and damn proud to be the one calling the kettle black when and where-ever I can...and generally do...collapse is possible...don't fool yourselfs...(pun intend'd)...

It's really a good time to be awake...I will never be reduced to a useful idiot status, never...and if I ever shrink to a role of blissfully unaware...just shoot me.

The time is now...and it's too late to dance...we got work to do people...get off your asses, and move...say what you mean...and mean what you say...anything else is just complete bullshit...

Thanks for the post, 'Erb...:alienwink:

...DC...:XXsunsmile::new_scatter:

Psycho D · Oct 10, 2010

Herb said:

I have to admit that I'm not exactly sure what you mean by me being the 'living end'. Maybe you were stoned when ya wrote that...I dunno.
Look....You have your view and I have mine. I happen to think you're wrong in your view of the world but I do respect the fact that you are entitled to your own view. Allow me mine without the badgering if you would please.

Thanks :thumbs-up:
Click to expand...

Allowed.

And yes. I was stoned. :flyy:

Herb · Oct 11, 2010

Dazechain said:

...lol...
...on a serious note...over - the - top hardcore skeptic here, and damn proud to be the one calling the kettle black when and where-ever I can...and generally do...collapse is possible...don't fool yourselfs...(pun intend'd)...

It's really a good time to be awake...I will never be reduced to a useful idiot status, never...and if I ever shrink to a role of blissfully unaware...just shoot me.

The time is now...and it's too late to dance...we got work to do people...get off your asses, and move...say what you mean...and mean what you say...anything else is just complete bullshit...

Thanks for the post, 'Erb...:alienwink:

...DC...:XXsunsmile::new_scatter:
Click to expand...

You're quite welcome Daze....BTW...thanks for the new sig.

Herb · Oct 11, 2010

More points to ponder....

Just posting info and NOT stating my opinion on it. Take it or leave it people. Remember....you have the right to your own opinion and you also have the right to not read something. I'm in no way forcing you to do so.

BTW....I am cutting and pasting in order to 'preserve' the info in case it is somehow lost or removed from the internet.

Uncharted Waters, the Future of U.S. Interest Rates
By Vedran Vuk

With the dollar collapsing to nearly $1.38 for a euro, many have been left asking, “What happened?” One month we’re doing great and talking down to Europe; the next, the dollar is back to pre-Greek crisis levels. While many factors are responsible, I wanted to touch on just one, expectations of long-term U.S. rates.

In the financial news, central bank watchers seem to divide themselves into three groups: those who follow economic textbooks, those who study Bernanke, and those who view the central bank as almost unpredictable.

The first group follow their college economics textbooks word for word. They ignore the personal opinions of the central bankers, the political situation, and the individuality of every recession. These analysts assume that central banks will always follow a prescribed pattern. Every economics student should know the drill. If the economy weakens, lower rates. If it’s overheating, raise rates. If a recovery begins, increase rates slowly.

These central bank watchers never fear inflation. They believe that Bernanke will always take the appropriate action in response to any threat. However, in reality, central banks deviate from the set game plan. And that’s when problems arise.

The majority of commentators fall into this category, and they have good reason for doing so. Historical precedence is an important compass for the future. After all, certain central banks around the world appear to be following the textbook.

These central banks slashed rates, and now with more stable economies, the rates are rising. Gold-based economies such as Canada and Australia could even keep their rates lower. In fact, higher gold prices could give them leeway for lower rates. Nonetheless, they’re following the textbook. As a result, their currencies have appreciated against the dollar in the past few months. Investors expect them to play by the book and keep raising rates. Positive expectations have real value on foreign exchange markets.

The second group are the Bernanke watchers. According to their view, you don’t play the cards; you play the man. It’s certainly a smart way of looking at the situation. After all, take 20 leading economists and ask them about their macroeconomics views, and you will receive 20 different answers with general similarities. Economics is not a strictly defined hard science. Economists have the luxury of coloring outside the lines.

Bernanke’s academic days do yield some important information. First, he’s scared to death of deflation. He would likely prefer 4-5% inflation to the slightest degree of deflation. Second, Bernanke believes in preserving financial institutions. His academic articles on the Great Depression focused on the damage caused by bank failures.

In the 1930s, credit information wasn’t easily available. Your local banker knew who was creditworthy and who wasn’t. He couldn’t simply type your name into a computer and get a credit score. When the local bank went bust, permanent information about the creditworthiness of the community was lost. Hence, it was difficult to restart the financial system with many bank failures. The new banker in town had to learn everyone’s reputation from scratch. In turn, this slowed the flow of credit and, as a result, the recovery too. This analysis is Bernanke’s claim to fame in the Great Depression literature.

Could this academic study infer that Bernanke would bail out the banks, no matter what? Maybe. However, the current situation is quite different from his papers.

The last group see the central bank as largely unpredictable. Forget the textbook, and forget Bernanke’s academic papers. Interest rates are not following either pattern. Just take interest rates month by month as they come. With the Fed’s last meeting, more analysts may be switching to this point of view. With a small market recovery, the textbook said to raise rates, but instead Bernanke promised more quantitative easing. Even a small rate hike would have sufficed to keep the dollar in place, but Bernanke went the opposite way. That means the textbook viewpoint is out the window. Bernanke’s interest rates are off the regular evening menu.

Further, the textbooks can’t tell us much about near-zero interest rates. It’s largely uncharted territory. Many free-market types blame Bernanke’s Neo-Keynesian school of thought for the current rate policy, but this is inaccurate. Even Neo-Keynesians didn’t suggest near-zero interest rates prior to this recession. Sure, most would support extremely low rates, but not that low. The majority of economists recognize that Japan’s near-zero interest rate policy has been a disaster.

Hence, Bernanke is adlibbing here. He’s completely off script. Can he keep rates low for an extended period of time and just raise them back with little harm to the economy? No one knows. There are simply not enough historical precedents to predict the outcome.

Bernanke has indicated that he’s sailing this ship into unknown waters. Hence, more analysts are becoming uncertain about the future of rates. As a result, the future of the dollar looks hazier too. Though Canadian, Australian, and Norwegian rates are low relative to the long term, their trajectories are predictable. Their ships navigate with a compass and map in hand. But with the Federal Reserve, long-term rates are murky.

Bernanke tried his hardest to create a predictable environment of low rates. He succeeded. However, at the same time, he has made the timing of higher rates highly unpredictable. And when investors can’t see a clear picture of future rates, they will discount the U.S. dollar in favor of more predictable central banks. Something to think about.

The Fiat Currencies Are Headed into Crisis

It's important to recognize what's actually going on with the price of gold, which has broken into new record territory again today – to $1,331 as I write. It is not that there has been a change in gold's fundamentals, because there hasn't. To recap those fundamentals:

Gold is still viewed as good money across every country and every culture on this planet.

It is still extremely difficult to locate a gold deposit and to scratch it out of the Earth's crust.

Because of the difficulties in mining gold, the supply of gold has remained remarkably constant. In fact, despite higher prices the global production of gold continues to go down. That is an irrefutable confirmation that all of the easy deposits have been found and of the challenges of mining gold – which today includes not just the geological difficulties but large doses of environmental and governmental roadblocks.

It is the constant nature of new gold supplies that have helped make gold sound money. That would not be the case if you could gin the stuff up at will, as the governments can do with the paper currencies. Put another way, if gold could be created as easily as the paper currencies, no one would want to hold it as a store of value.
(Some people refer derisively to gold owners as “gold bugs.” Turning that idea around, legendary investor Richard Russell, in a rare public appearance at the summit, used the term “dollar bug” to describe those who would foolishly prefer holding paper currency over gold. I think that’s a very good way of looking at the gold vs. dollar argument.)

And that, dear readers, brings us to what’s actually driving the price of gold up.

Namely, that there’s a global race to the bottom underway for the world's fiat currencies. In their efforts to save their economies from the extraordinary levels of debt they and their predecessors have run up, the misguided politicians now believe that the best approach is to devalue their currencies against those of their trading partners. This in the hopes of gaining a competitive commercial advantage for their export products on global markets.

During the summit, Doug Casey explained exactly how wrongheaded this approach is, but the last time I checked, the world's leaders were not listening to Doug (though they certainly should be).

This morning, it has been announced that the Japanese are again intervening in their currency markets, by pushing their already low interest rates lower still… just a tick off zero, despite two decades during which they had the opportunity to discover the flaw in this approach. That the Japanese are taking such extreme measures reinforces just how desperate they are becoming. (Vitaliy Katsenelson, in his eye-opening summit presentation, explains Japan’s fundamentals and why it’s on the verge of a financial Armageddon that everyone needs to prepare for.)

And it's not just Japan intervening in their currencies. As Bud Conrad explained in his excellent opening presentation, there’s a long and growing list of countries that have either recently intervened or are currently trying to force their currencies lower. In fact, in addition to Japan, both South Korea and Brazil have just announced what are essentially exchange controls on money coming into the country from foreigners. By raising taxes on foreign investments in their bonds, they hope to reduce the inflow of foreign purchases, which otherwise help keep the local currency strong.

This race to the bottom cannot end well.

What Could Derail Gold?

Acting in my role as master of ceremonies at the summit, I asked the faculty this question on more than one occasion. The answer is quite simple and has been discussed in previous editions of these daily musings.

Namely, real interest rates will need to become discernibly positive. In other words, interest rates will have to increase to a level that outstrips currency depreciation. At that point, an increasing number of investors will look to park their cash in "safe" instruments that pay them a real rate of return on their money.

In order for that to happen today, the world's governments would have to be willing to raise short-term interest rates and encourage long-term rates to rise by changing course from loose money policies to tight money policies.

Stated so simply, current or prospective gold investors might worry that this could easily come to pass. But viewed through the lens of reality, tighter monetary policies and higher interest rates would turn the debt-soaked economies into the equivalent of large smoking holes in the ground.

Unless and until they are forced to it by circumstances beyond their control (think Greece without the eurozone to backstop them), the world’s deadbeat governments – of which Uncle Sam is by far the largest – will avoid higher interest rates and tight monetary policies like an Ebola ward. And by the time they are forced to it, gold will be selling for multiples of where it is today.

Of course, there is one more thing that could trip up gold. Namely that there’s no question that global governments are increasingly being discomfited by what might be termed a "gold problem."

Basically, rising gold prices are revealing the insane fiscal and monetary policies of governments for the desperate shams they are. In the era of zero ethics and a “whatever it takes” attitude of governments, it is certainly conceivable that they may get together to do some dark deed to damage gold's intrinsic value to buyers.

It could be a much higher tax regime, it could be by meddling in the commodities exchange rules, it could be through confiscation, or ultimately it could be by returning to something of a gold standard that effectively sets an artificially low price.

We get questions about the government's possible intervention in gold markets all the time, and it was discussed at some length in the summit proceedings, but the reality of the situation is that it will be nowhere near as easy for any one government to effect a fundamental change in the gold market as it was back at the time of Roosevelt's confiscation.

For one thing, central bankers are increasingly becoming net buyers of gold, a straw in the wind that they see the price moving higher, not lower. The failure of fiat currency systems is now obvious to anyone paying attention – it’s just how the transition to something else will unfold that is still uncertain. And in uncertain times, the trend will clearly be towards owning more, not less, gold.

That said, as governments grow more desperate, we can't rule anything out – but neither can we dwell on the unforeseeable. Instead, we take the measures we must to protect ourselves today, while keeping one ear tightly to the ground in trying to monitor likely governmental actions as they evolve.

On that last front, Doug and I agree that we need to be very attuned to continuing moves by governments to push for a cashless society. Once they have done away with cash, it’s a simple turn of the knob to declare that the criminal classes are using gold instead of cash to transact their business, and to announce new controls.

Again, something to watch – but nothing to stop you from taking the steps you need to now to protect your wealth.

The End of Democracy?

As evidenced in a growing number of comments made by people on both the left and right of the political spectrum, there’s widespread and growing discontent with the institution of democracy in these United States.

On the left, there is an emergent view that the perfect-world agenda is being stymied by the obstructionist curmudgeons on the right. On the right, there is heartfelt anger at the blunt-force passage of populist anti-business, anti-liberty legislation by the controlling leftists.

In fact, just about the only thing both sides of the political spectrum can agree on is that democracy is not working.

It’s hard to argue the point, but I have long come to accept this polarization as natural, given the age of the U.S. democracy. Decades of political pandering, payoffs, and proliferation have reformed the societal landscape, building a wall between the productive elements and the net recipients of government largess. In the latter category, I’m not just referring to the unfortunates who have to rely on government checks to cover the food bills, but including all the corporations and non-governmental organizations whose long and cozy relations with their cronies in Congress allow them special favors.

There is an old adage that one should lead, follow, or get out of the way. At this point, our democratically elected government is doing none of the above. And so here we are, passengers on a runaway train with effectively no one at the controls.

As the situation seems irresolvable at this point, I can’t help wonder what might come next? Especially after the train leaves the rails, followed by a second and far more devastating round of economic destruction?

At that point, with tens of millions of people suffering the indignity and privations of long-term unemployment, and their ranks swelling by the day, could we actually see an overthrow of the American democracy?

Leaning once again on the astute observations of Machiavelli in his masterpiece The Prince, I’d like to try to imagine just how such an overthrow might occur.

In The Prince, Machiavelli describes how it is relatively easy to capture a country whose society is divided into principalities (or dukedoms, tribes, etc.), each of whom has their own loyal following. That’s because leading a successful revolt can be accomplished by lining up the support of a group of ambitious princes who then act in concert against the person at the top.

Once you capture such a country, however, it’s very hard to hold it. That’s because, in the same way that you can corrupt a few well-placed princes, so can any would-be usurper. A good example of this axiom is provided in the movie Braveheart when a handful of the Scottish lords, each with their own following, are bought off. At a decisive moment in a battle against the English, they lead their followers away, leaving William Wallace to his unhappy fate.

For the sake of this discussion, I’m passing over the republics that were the topic of Machiavelli’s Discourses on Livy, because I think we’re well past the point of a functioning participatory government at this point. In my view, we’ve been effectively taken over by the professional politicians and the entrenched bureaucrats that serve them.

And so, having dealt with countries replete with princes and their pockets of local loyalties, we turn to those countries that are led by a central authority and administered by bureaucrats.

While one could debate as to whether the U.S. is such a country, my assessment is that it is. Though the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches are supposed to provide checks and balances, the unfettered growth of government power to the detriment of the individual makes it clear that, no matter who occupies which positions in government, the net result is the same: the government tells us, the citizenry, to jump, and the legions of bureaucrats institute and enforce the rules determining how high.

In any event, back to Machiavelli and my thought experiment, it was Machiavelli’s observation that a country led by a central authority is very hard to overthrow. That’s because the public has no strong loyalty to anyone in power and thus can’t be encouraged to rally around that personage, prince, or tribal chiefdom in order to rise up and seize the controls. This point is easy to understand by asking yourself if anyone would rally to a battle call issued by Barney Frank or Nancy Pelosi, or any congressman or state governor, for that matter.

Hardly.

So a country with a centralized power, in this thesis, the United States, tends to be very hard to overthrow. But once you have done so, Machiavelli informs us, it’s very easy to hold power. Modern examples of the truth of this observation are plentiful, including China, North Korea, Libya, Zimbabwe, Burma, etc. That’s because, again, the population has no loyalty to any potential opposition that can be used to rally them to action.

With that background, I turn now to how an overthrow might occur. Paradoxically, it begins with the strongly held cultural beliefs in the United States surrounding freedom, justice, and liberty for all. Even though these principles have been ground into the dirt by the politicos, we Americans still like to believe that these American virtues live on in our very cores.

So be it.

Now imagine a day in the not-too-distant future when something terrible happens that shakes America to its core. It could be a collapse of the U.S. dollar that literally wipes out the wealth of the majority of population.

Or it could be an atomic bomb going off in a major city.

Neither of those two possibilities are out of the question, and they are just a couple of any number of equally frightening potential scenarios. If such a scenario came to pass, what do you think the public reaction would be, especially of those of a more conservative political mindset?

Do you think their already seething anger at what they see as a wholesale stomping on the under principles of America might boil over and send thousands into the street? I do.

However, rather than democracy as we know it being swept away by a popular uprising, complete with the whole pitchforks and torches thing, I see a far more likely scenario being a military coup – though that coup would likely only take place once the streets were filled with angry citizens.

A military coup? Impossible, I can sense many of you thinking… but stick with me for just a moment longer and I’ll try to explain how it might work.

So, the tipping point event has occurred and the Democrats are seen as being at fault, either for mismanaging the country into economic ruin or for failing to properly look after national defense. Angry citizens take to the streets, and ugly confrontations are broadcast around the clock on the cable news. The National Guard is called out and people are killed, and nothing the politicians on either side say in press conferences given in undisclosed locations can mollify the angry masses.

At which point a general, called to the White House for a crisis consultation, arrests the president and the military moves in.

“Never gonna happen!” you say. “We Americans may have our differences, but a dictatorship? Never!”

Not so fast. In fact, I think a number of Americans, though initially shocked, could quickly find themselves supportive of the military’s coup.

Keep playing along with the thought experiment and see if it’s even a remote possibility.

For instance, imagine the words that General Petraeus might use as he addresses the nation for the first time.

“My fellow citizens, it is with deep regret that I must announce that in order to defend the nation and the Constitution, a joint military administration has temporarily removed the president from office and disbanded the legislative branch until the period of crisis has passed. This action has been taken only after much deliberation and only after it has been determined that the nation’s leadership has failed in its constitutional responsibilities and, in so doing, led us to this dark chapter in American history.”

With a backdrop of a waving American flag and a speech replete with patriotic quotes and references to the Constitution, freedom and liberty, I think the repugnance that most Americans feel for the politicians would override any deeper sense of outrage at the military’s actions, especially in that those actions would only come in the context of a whopper of a crisis and would be positioned as being only “temporary.”

But once the overthrow is complete, it would be very hard to overturn, and a new American era would begin. In time, I would expect the military to step aside, but only after American democracy had been reformatted and streamlined.

Do I think this scenario could actually come to pass? Not really. But I wouldn’t dismiss it out of hand.

And it is no certainty that a suspension of American democracy will come from the right; in the teeth of a crisis, anything can happen. Including that a Democrat president, faced with widespread rioting, could declare martial law and shut down opposition media and websites for a “cooling period.”

I’m not predicting some sort of dystopian future for the U.S., but there’s no ignoring the almost infinite number of historical examples of political systems and arrangements being suddenly tossed over the side. That the U.S. democracy has become so degraded and discredited, and appears to be on track to only degrade further, seems to me to make it vulnerable.

While I can’t be sure how things will evolve from here, I have a hard time believing that we’ll get through this crisis without big changes, if for no other reason than that it’s clear to pretty much everyone that the status quo isn’t working.

Other than idle musing, is there anything actionable in this discussion?

Not really, other than as a reminder to take general measures against uncertainty – laying a solid foundation in precious metals and giving thought to establishing a second home, or at least a bank account, in another country you like to spend time in. In order of priority, the collapse of the dollar is far more concerning to me than a military coup.

With the basic preparations, you can get on with enjoying your life. Because if you dwell too much on this sort of thing, you’ll become paranoid and miss the best this wonderful world has to offer.

Politicians Lie

As I believe I have mentioned in previous editions of these daily musings, years ago I spent time with a high-profile Canadian currency trader, the late Dr. Morton Shulman. One of the core tenets in his investing methodology was to pay very close attention to what central bankers say about their future currency actions – and then bet that exactly the opposite will come to pass.

While simplistic, there is a clear logic to this approach. After all, unless a central banker graduated last in their class from a community college and was passed only because the professor thought they were cute, they know that broadcasting their actual plans will only make the execution that much more difficult.

With Shulman’s tenet in mind, I assembled a quick collection of central bank commentary from Bloomberg today.

From Japan…

Japan won’t weaken the yen to become more competitive with other countries in trade and any currency intervention would be aimed at restraining excessive moves, Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi said.
“It’s not our intention to engage in a currency- devaluation race for the sake of the national interest,” Igarashi said in an interview in Tokyo today. “We could conduct smoothing operations when movements are extremely volatile, that would be permissible.”

From England…

The Bank of England kept up emergency stimulus and left its interest rate at a record low as officials debate whether to join a global push to pump more aid into the world economy.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, held the target for bond holdings at 200 billion pounds ($319 billion), as forecast by all 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The panel also kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent at its decision today in London.
… Today’s decision “will be a lively meeting,” George Buckley, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, said in a telephone interview before the decision. “While most members will probably say we’re not willing to do more quantitative easing at the moment, it’s moving that way…”

From the U.S.A.

While Geithner said countries need to cooperate, he stopped short of endorsing an update of the Plaza Accord, the 1985 agreement among the world’s five major economies to weaken the dollar. He also said it’s important not to “focus too much” on currencies.
“It is very important to see more progress by the major emerging economies to more flexible, more market-oriented exchange-rate systems,” Geithner said. “This is particularly important for those countries whose currencies are significantly undervalued.”
(Translation: Geithner wants a weaker dollar.)

From China, which seems to me to be the only one talking with any candor, given he brings up the generally taboo topic of social unrest on the home front.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday a rapid increase of the yuan would hobble China’s economy, dealing a fresh rebuke to U.S. and European calls for a higher exchange rate.
“If the yuan isn’t stable, it will bring disaster to China and the world,” Wen told a business conference before a Europe- China summit in Brussels. “If we increase the yuan by 20 percent-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil. If China’s economy goes down, it’s not good for the world economy.”

All of which brings me to a quick comment, as I head for the exits, on the topic of gold. After yet another strong move overnight into new record territory above $1,350 – it has fallen off today, but by less than 1%.

During our summit, Richard Russell made a funny but insightful point when he asked the audience if they would take the government’s word for it should some member of officialdom hand you a wooden bead and tell you it was worth $100.

Well, would you?

If not, then why would you accept their word that a piece of paper, or an electronic blip, either of which can be created ad infinitum, represents $100 of purchasing power?

Does gold’s strong surge concern me? If I were a day trader, maybe. But as someone who definitely doesn’t buy the “a wooden bead is real money” argument, not at all. At this point, even a 20% correction in gold would leave the price well over $1,000… a level that would certainly spark a lot of buying.

No need to rush into anything, but if you don’t have a solid foundation in precious metals, the time has arrived to make steady purchases, preferably on pullbacks.

The conventional wisdom is that gold is in a bubble. It isn’t so. At the just-concluded Casey’s Gold & Resource Summit, Eric Sprott showed a slide showing gold and gold mining shares as a % of global assets. As you can see in the chart, which I am republishing here, gold holdings are currently a fraction of what they’ve been historically.

We have a long way to go before gold can be considered fully valued, so sit tight and be right.
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Herb · Oct 12, 2010

Currency Wars: The Phantom Financial Menace

It's my hope that when people read these articles it somehow gives them a more broad view of what's happening in the world right now. It's those happenings that shape my point of view and it's my point of view that shapes my plan for the future.

I'll say it again....I have ZERO interest in shaping anyone else's point of view and I'm the last guy on earth that wishes to make plans for you. That's not my job thankfully. I'm just trying to help people get information they would not normally see in the MSM. Read at your own will....or don't. Your choice.

I should make that into a disclaimer.

By Giordano Bruno
Neithercorp Press – 10/12/2010

War, almost every kind of war, is first and foremost a production. A piece of live-action theater with “good guys” and “bad guys” delineated by governments and by media for the benefit of the masses. Most plot-points in most modern conflicts are not genuine. They are written and staged (Gulf of Tonkin, or WMD’s in Iraq anyone?), though we treat the fairytale as if it were reality simply because the story is being told by some corporate mouthpiece wearing a fake smile and a suit on our TV. Very often, we discover after the fact that the wars we witnessed in the dark shadows of our cultural cinema with greasy popcorn and mega-large soda in hand were actually a charade, a farce. We get angry, we get livid, and then we go on with our menial lives because the “damage is done” and what can we do about it now anyway? Very rarely in history do the majority of people have the ability or occasion to see the authentic war going on right in front of their eyes, between the social puppeteers, and those who have broken loose from their strings.

Today, we as Americans have a rare opportunity to step outside the theater, away from the fabricated pageantry of a particular conflict barreling down the horizon, and examine the situation objectively before it fully develops. That conflict is the now increasingly aggressive “global currency war” being readied for implementation and public consumption at this very moment.

For now, the threat of a large scale currency fight is being presented as “minimal” but potentially relevant. In fact, the war has been slowly taking root since at least 2008, right after the initial collapse of the mortgage derivatives bubble when the private Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to near zero and began openly purchasing U.S. Treasury debt. Only this past month has the MSM finally begun discussing the wider implications of these measures, along with the obvious reactions of other nations, including the escalation of trade wars into a full fledged fiat battle royale.

But all is not what it seems…

As I hope to demonstrate clearly in this article, not only is the currency war threat utterly unnecessary, irrational, and fiscally pointless, it is also completely engineered to serve a purpose beyond the policy directives of any one sovereign nation, and meant to benefit only a small handful of financial elite…

Currency War Is No Surprise

The mainstream media has lately been treating the currency war concept as somehow shocking and unexpected, as if it fell from the sky out of nowhere to wreak havoc on poor unsuspecting economists. In the article below, the financial analyst even attributes the origin of the phrase “currency war” to Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who gauged the issue a week ago:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-09/currency-tensions-may-be-curbed-with-imf-help-strauss-kahn-says.html

Wait! What?! I don’t know who exactly coined the term first, but I know it wasn’t some guy named “Guido” only a week ago. Alternative economists and analysts (including myself) have been warning about this issue for years! In fact, top Chinese economist Song Hongbing, who has also lived and worked in the U.S., wrote a book highly popular in China called (…wait for it…) “Currency Wars”, which was first published back in 2007:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_Wars

Interestingly, Song’s book predicts the crash of 2008, and outlines how Western banking elites were planning to use numerous national fiat implosions to introduce a world currency. But let’s set Song aside for later…

The key here is that the idea and the danger of currency conflicts has been present and warned about repeatedly long before 2010. The reason the media is attempting to paint this topic as a surprise even though many have been loudly cautioning about it is simple; diversion of blame, away from central banks, and away from the establishment. A blithe rewriting of history in ‘real time’, if you will.

Here’s a little secret to telling the future, and you don’t have to be psychic either; just look at the strategies and rhetoric globalists used for the last crisis they created, and then apply them to the next one ad naseum. It works like magic! In 2008 as the credit crisis moved into full-gear, global bankers and MSM pundits everywhere starting shrugging their shoulders in faux denial like four-year-olds who had just raided the cookie jar. “Gee, how could this have happened! It came out of nowhere! We must set up a special commission to get to the bottom of this…blah blah, lies, half lies, quasi-truths, etc.” This is exactly the same kind of distraction we are beginning to hear in terms of the trade and currency tensions evolving today. In 2011, as the U.S. dollar moves towards complete disintegration, and our government and media slather propaganda on the disaster as some kind of unforeseen economic Pearl Harbor, just remember, it’s certainly not a surprise to global bankers, even if they claim ignorance.

Inflation Is So Fun, They Should Make It A Theme Park…

Almost immediately after the credit crisis became visible, establishment economists were calling for a devaluation of the dollar. Here is a Forbes article from 2008 which pretends as if it is anti-banker, then outlines why deliberate inflation is supposedly a “cure all”, which is exactly the kind of disinformation global bankers love:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/09/dollar-devaluation-gold-pf-ii-in_fb_1209soapbox_inl.html

There are two prongs to this devil’s pitchfork:

1) The argument that through creation of fiat out of thin air national debts can be “erased” and the only downside is slightly reduced purchasing power, which can then be returned by monetary de-circulation over a short period of time (its that easy, right?).

2) The argument that through devaluation, a country’s exports will become more competitive and thus generate more national income, revitalizing the economy.

Both of these arguments are devoid of logic when applied to our particular economic fundamentals. Devaluation of currency to counter unsustainable debt has never actually balanced the accounts of any country. As in the Forbes article above, some MSM analysts suggest that the Great Depression was eventually ended through “controlled liquidity injections” (stimulus) and an increased disconnection from the gold standard. This is highly debatable, but lets’ say for the moment that deliberate inflation towards the end of that decade did pull the U.S. out of crisis. The comparison to today’s situation, as far as devaluation goes, is inapplicable, because the U.S. had nowhere near the level of national debt in 1930 as it does today. In fact, from 1920 to 1930, just before the Great Depression struck, our national debt was reduced by over 30%, and the money we did owe was owed to allied (friendly) governments. In 2008, our national debt was expanding at historic rates and still is. Also, any inflation that was created during the 1930’s and 1940’s went into the general economy, not into the endless bailouts of banks, and not into the constant purchasing of our own Treasury bonds, as is being done currently.

As far as debt/inflation goes, a more accurate historical comparison would be Weimar Germany, and the collapse of the German Mark.

Germany went into its own Great Depression with cumbersome debts, owed to numerous countries (many of them hostile) after borrowing beyond its means to sustain its constant war efforts (any of this sound familiar?). The Republic finally pursued a policy of engineered inflation, believing they could print their way out of their obligations and suffer only minimal losses to their currency value. The problem was that Germany assumed, just as some in the U.S. do today, that their debtors would continue to accept the imploding currency as payment. Instead, debtors began refusing fiat and demanding infrastructure and resources. Coal, Steel, Timber, etc, was seized and used to settle liabilities. German production and industrial capability was destroyed. Printing continued just to keep the government afloat, and soon, no one in the world wanted Marks, not even the German people.

Mainstream economists today are making the same daft presumptions that were made in Weimar Germany. Will countries like China, Japan, or Russia, continue accepting dollars as payment as we continue to inflate? Or, will they treat us like another Weimar, stop accepting the Greenback, dump their T-bond holdings, and cut their losses? Perhaps they will demand infrastructure and resources as compensation.

Keep in mind that investing in a country that has forsaken its own currency, the very basis of its economy, is like giving a full-on sweaty bear hug to a leper; just the thought gives people chills! The point here is, we should not expect that countries we owe money to will continue to accept the dollar as viable. It certainly did not turn out that way in the Weimar Republic.

The claim that our exports will mushroom with a weaker dollar is equally naïve. Like Weimar Germany, U.S. industrial capability has been gutted, just in a slightly different manner. Outsourcing has left us with a 70% service based economy reliant not on production and savings, but consumption sustained by ever increasing debt. Most American owned factories are built and operated overseas, employing foreign workers at rock bottom prices. As severe devaluation of our currency takes hold, I wonder exactly what mainstream economists expect us to export? And even if we could rebuild a semblance of a manufacturing base in less than a decade, why would countries like China buy products from us that they can easily make themselves at higher volumes and at cheaper cost? The whole concept sounds preposterous (and it is)!

This article on Alcoa’s international sales reports, for instance, attempts to assert that the Aluminum manufacturer’s exports are thriving because of the devaluation of the dollar, then, it completely contradicts itself by pointing out that profits are actually FALLING because of the weaker dollar:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/alcoa-profit-beats-analysts-estimates-on-aluminum-demand-shares-advance.html

The only export we have that foreign countries had any demand for was the dollar as the world reserve currency, and now, our central bank and government has set out to purposely end this! Recently, the Federal Reserve has begun openly calling for increased stimulus, admitting that their GOAL is, indeed, inflation:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703843804575534043689519572.html

The insinuation here is that inflation has “yet” to occur, when it is actually in progress now. Central bankers have so far shrugged off the dramatic rise of gold over the past few months, stating that gold is an “unreliable” indicator of inflation and that its increase is due to greater demand, not the devaluation of the dollar. High demand for gold as an alternative currency should be enough to worry anyone over the safety of the dollar, and gold is gaining against other world currencies as well, however, it is only breaking records against the Greenback!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/227967-inflation-scorecard-swissie-euro-vs-gold

This indicates that dollar devaluation, not just commodity demand, is contributing directly to inflation.

Gold is not the only commodity inflating because of the weak dollar. Almost all commodities, including food staples, are skyrocketing in price. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his recent video blog, all the excitement over the current Dow and S&P rally is pretty empty when you consider that most commodities are outperforming stocks due to inflation. If you invested in rice, copper, or even jockey shorts (cotton), then you made more money this past month than anyone who invested in the S&P or the Dow:

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